Trump vs Biden: Predicting the Winner Using Data Insights

The 2024 US presidential election is about to kick into full gear, with a showdown between two of the most divisive candidates in US history likely to unfold in the months to come. 

Joe Biden and Donald Trump may be political rivals, but they have two things in common: significant support base of passionate voters and ever-changing popularity polls and betting odds. 

In the run-up to the election, bookmakers are rushing to update the probabilities of a Trump or Biden victory. Betting fans will need to stay up-to-date with the latest polls and other data to increase their chances of winning.

To help get your betting strategy off to a good start, we’ve put together some of the most important predictions about the 2024 election. Read on to gain insights that may give you an edge when deciding which candidate to bet on.

Controversial Trump returns while Democrats scramble to keep Biden in the White House.

The 2024 presidential election is attracting huge media attention – and given the personalities involved, it’s no surprise. 

• Donald Trump shocked the world when he won the 2016 US election, opening the door to four years of controversial policies and public statements that no US president before him would have dared to make. 
• The Trump presidency came to a controversial end in 2020 amid the Covid pandemic and the storming of the Capitol by a small group of ardent Trump supporters.  

Trump’s erratic decision-making gave traditionalist Joe Biden the edge he needed to win the popular vote in 2020 and prevent Trump from winning his second term – but that may be about to change.

There’s no doubt that Donald Trump is a divisive and polarizing public figure, but recent popularity polls indicate that he is gaining an advantage over his rival. 

When it comes to preliminary polling, there are two main metrics that can help us gauge a candidate’s chances of winning in November 2024: party nominations and general election polls.

• Donald Trump is currently the front-runner in the Republican party’s race for the nomination, with over 60% of Republican voters indicating that they would support him as a candidate.
• Joe Biden enjoys a similarly undisputed status as the future Democrat candidate, with an overall popularity of  65.8% among his voter base.

Candidates will be chosen starting in January of 2024 through caucuses and state primaries. 

• A caucus is organized by the state administration of the Republican or Democrat party and attracts relatively few voters, while a primary is akin to a mini-election and is held by the state electoral authority. 
• The Iowa Republican Caucus on January 15th and the New Hampshire Primary on the 23rd will be dates to watch ahead of Super Tuesday on March 5th 
• As things stand, it’s almost certain that Donald Trump (age 78) and Joe Biden (82) will be the main faces appearing on ballots in the 2024 presidential election. 

But from a betting point of view, the more important question is:  who will win? 

Here are some early polling results that may give a clue about both candidates’ popularity.

Trump edges ahead in general election polls despite a raft of lawsuits

Donald Trump’s controversial presidential style Has not gone unnoticed by the authorities. The former president is currently facing charges, including election interference and mishandling of classified documents at both federal and state levels, and has been widely criticized and condemned by the US and international media.

When it comes to general election polls, the controversial former president seems to be edging ahead of Joe Biden.

According to the latest data from FiveThirtyEight, Trump currently enjoys an approval rating of 42.3 and disapproval rating of 52.3 giving him a net score of -9.9.

Joe Biden is currently favored by 38.3 percent of voters, while 55.6 percent disapproved of him as a candidate for a net score of -17.3. 

Considering that Trump’s net approval rating was -18.1 in August of this year, there is reason to believe that he may be gaining significant popularity. As it is so often the case, economics may hold the key to Trump’s rebound. 

• The US economy has struggled with persistent high inflation since the end of the pandemic, driving up the cost of living. 
• At a time when housing prices are near all-time highs, the cost of mortgage payments has skyrocketed due to super-high interest rates designed to bring inflation under control. 

Simply put, Americans are worried about the economy. This may be leading some citizens to doubt Joe Biden’s ability to restore prosperity while memories of lower living costs and inflation during the pre-pandemic Trump era paint nostalgic images in some citizens’ minds.

Pro-Trump sentiment reflected in betting odds

With a clear understanding of the social and political situation unfolding in America ahead of the 2024 US election, let’s move on to analyze some of the latest betting odds in favor of – and against – both Trump and Biden before you bet who will be the next president. Bookmakers currently rank Trump +125 in favor of winning the US election while Biden trails at +200, these figures indicate increased confidence in Trump’s ability to win. 

But as the events of the next few months unfold, it’s possible that a reversal in these numbers will occur. 

Trump’s pending lawsuits may turn public sentiment against him while Biden’s senior age and increasing tendency to make public gaffes – as well as impeachment inquiry – may harm his chances of election victory. 

Betters who anticipate an unprecedented upset during the presidential nomination process may stand to gain from placing bets on other candidates or betting against Trump and Biden – but it should be noted that the probability of this type of event is extremely remote.

Final words: as the 2024 election approaches, vigilance is key.

Overall, it may be safe to assume that the US presidential election will unfold with the two expected candidates – Trump and Biden – appearing on the ballot. 

Trump’s recent success in popularity polls may indicate a competitive advantage going into the election, but considering the severity of the lawsuits the former president is facing, it may be risky to extrapolate the final election results from such early numbers.

An ideal betting strategy at this stage would be to monitor the developments in US politics ahead of the election carefully and look out for extreme events that may disqualify one or both candidates from the running or dramatically shift their chances of winning. 

Finally, given the advanced age of both candidates and the high intensity and pressure of the upcoming campaign, bookmakers will be looking out for any signs of frailty or ill health in both Trump and Biden.