The 2024/25 UEFA Nations League has delivered more than just world-class clashes between Europe’s elite. It has spotlighted the rise of underdog nations, many of whom are rewriting expectations across the competition’s reshaped format.
With new knockout rounds and revamped promotion-relegation pathways, the tournament has handed lesser-known squads the perfect stage to challenge traditional powers. Some of them have made that opportunity count in astonishing fashion.
A New Format, A New Path to Glory
The tournament’s evolution has reshuffled the deck for mid- and lower-tier nations. The introduction of March 2025’s expanded knockout rounds created momentum for teams often overshadowed in past editions.
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This structural change gave runners-up and third-placed sides in Leagues B and C a legitimate shot at promotion, while increasing the stakes for every group-stage result.
It wasn’t just the top names like Spain and Portugal fighting for silverware; countries like Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Luxembourg suddenly found themselves in meaningful matches with long-term implications. As expectations shifted, so too did the UEFA Nations League odds, with bookmakers forced to reevaluate the potential of these rising teams.
League B saw Georgia rise from Group B1 alongside Ukraine, edging past Albania and Czechia. Their consistent performances secured vital points that pushed them into contention for play-off advancement.
In B3, Kazakhstan stunned more established teams by hanging tough with Austria, Slovenia, and Norway — a group few gave them a chance of escaping. While they ultimately fell short of promotion, Kazakhstan’s discipline and attacking bursts hinted at a promising future.
League C: Where the Shakeups Ruled the Day
League C witnessed some of the tournament’s most surprising trajectories. Slovakia, part of C1 with Sweden and Azerbaijan, surged to the top with a mix of youth and experience. Many had predicted Sweden would cruise through that group, but Slovakia’s defensive structure and efficient finishing turned the tide.
Luxembourg, however, stole the show. Grouped in C3 alongside Bulgaria, Northern Ireland, and Belarus, they emerged as the most cohesive unit.
Their unbeaten run included a notable win over Northern Ireland and a dogged draw away to Bulgaria. These performances earned them promotion to League B — a first in their Nations League history — and validated the country’s long-term investment in youth development and its focus on tactical discipline.
The Fall of the Familiar
While underdogs thrived, traditional powers in Leagues A and B endured turbulence. Scotland couldn’t break out of Group A1, where they shared the field with Portugal, Croatia, and Poland. France, despite star-studded talent, crashed out in the semi-finals against Spain after a chaotic 5-4 thriller. Germany, playing as hosts, were undone by a composed Portugal side led by Cristiano Ronaldo’s enduring brilliance.
But it’s not just the results — it’s the way they happened that’s telling. These losses weren’t anomalies; they were products of tight contests where historical pedigree wasn’t enough. In today’s Nations League, organisation, chemistry, and tactical innovation can outshine reputation.
League D: Hope in the Shadows
The smallest European nations often live in League D, but even here, transformation is underway. Moldova and Malta both topped their mini-groups, with Moldova showcasing resolute defence and a newfound cutting edge in front of goal. FanDuel research highlights how, for a nation so often on the wrong end of scorelines, their rise hints at a broader levelling of European football’s playing field.
The League C/D play-offs next March will test their growth against relegated League C sides, but the belief within these squads has never been higher.
Spain vs. Portugal: The Final, but the Story Lies Beneath
The marquee Nations League final pits two past winners against each other — Portugal and Spain. Portugal’s semi-final win over Germany came after trailing early, while Spain’s pulsating victory against France showcased the depth of their squad and a fearless approach to high-stakes football. Whoever lifts the trophy in Munich will become the first two-time Nations League champion.
Yet beneath the headlines and star names lies the deeper story of 2025: the quiet revolution of the underdog. The expansion of the Nations League’s format didn’t just fill out the calendar — it cracked open new pathways for nations long stuck in obscurity. And some of them didn’t just walk through that door; they kicked it wide open.
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